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Saturday, February 12, 2011

Egyptian Government changing, next up possibly Algeria

Congrats on Egyptian people for being heard, without requiring starting a violent revolution. President Mubarak ceded power to the Military. But don't worry about Mubarak, it looks like he has taken steps to ensure his vast wealth as "president" has been transfered to friendly countries. (Gold bars among the assets.)

If prices of food continues to rise, which it looks certain to do so, I would expect more countries barely keeping control to run into trouble. The weather in USA and around the world has severely injured crops. I expect ridiculous food price increases this year at times. Already being reported is Tomatoes in America going from about 8 bucks for a package of 4x4 tomatoes to 24 bucks. There are many other crops being affected, wheat is still a question of how bad the damage is done.

You may hear calls that this is proof that the fed is causing inflation to occur around the world. There is no doubt in my mind that loose money must find a home, and investing in natural resources is a good play. So I am convinced that the extreme price levels will be caused by Ben Bernanke and the Federal Reserve monetary policy. But for me I am not convinced yet that we are experiencing food price inflation. The injured crops combined with the China and India resource appetite is more to blame.

The next country up for trouble is Algeria. (Alergia next?)I may have been a bit early in January 2009 calling for countries to collapse, but it looks like 2011 is off to bang. All of this is actually good for the US dollar, as it should help drive fear into US bonds. However, so far, the US dollar isn't getting the boost it should. So we'll have to see how this plays out.

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