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Financial news I consider important, with my opinion, which is worth as much as you paid for it.
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Tuesday, March 9, 2010

Market View

Once again, work is keeping me busy to the point I can't spend significant time on the markets. I am keeping 1/2 an eye.

As a reminder to readers, and myself, here is my basic stance.
Money is a debt note for work delivered today, for work to be returned tomorrow.
Failure to either deliver work tomorrow, or significantly over-pay for work today is a "loss", could be considered minor fraud even.
The world economy has over paid and is not able to pay for work delivered. The contraction of money/credit results in deflation/recession/depression.
The US and the world has done NOTHING to bring these losses to fruition, and instead is trying to cover/kick the can in hopes later they can pay back work owed, and prices for over-paid work (real estate here) will return to previous levels.
Until the LAW is enforced, and losses are taken, the economy has no chance of having a sustained growth pattern.
Currently, the amount of printing money and giving it to those who did not perform "new work" (banks) is a concern, money could suffer severe valuation losses (currency inflation/devaluation).

The US dollar could fall hard, resulting in higher resources, and possibly higher stock valuations soon. It is my view that this will not come to fruition in the near future. (but will in the longer term)

The dollar valuation is the crux of the question. The Federal Reserve, US Treasury, and US government risk losing the US dollar as a currency that will be accepted globally. If the dollar falls hard, the US government's existence will be challenged. For this reason, I do NOT believe the government is stupid enough (laugh now) to throw the US dollar into a deep hole.....YET. (they will in time).

What is more likely to happen is in an attempt to keep interest rates low, the money printers will allow the US stock market to fall, then rise, then fall, basically eying interest rates.

At some point however, this little game will fail, and interest rates hit some sort of uncontrollable trajectory, its pretty much game over until a politician gets a spine. Last time this happened was in the 70's, but with completely different economic reasons. And the crisis wasn't nearly as severe. The resolution was to get fiscal discipline.

So until I see fiscal discipline, banks being held to international accounting standards, valuating assets for their true value, the LAW enforced, I cannot "bet" the market continues to climb, by what amounts to fraud. But it could if US dollar does resume it's collapse.

I of course, will change my tune if gold hits new highs, and the market is rising, then, I'll have to go with the first, the US dollar is losing value and best to put money into resources today. I am just no there yet.

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