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Financial news I consider important, with my opinion, which is worth as much as you paid for it.
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Friday, March 12, 2010

Is the bull market back?

Do I think the bull market is back, nope. But I do realize that this critical juncture does call for me to rethink everything. There is no way I add 1 share short in this position, if anything, I'll take a little more off the table.

We are facing one of a hundred scenarios, but here are my view of top 4.

1) Market in parabolic blowoff aka 2000, we may be in for month(s) of new highs, independent of US dollar.
2) US Dollar valuations, although holding up, are about to crack bigtime, possibly keeping the market rally going for many more months.
3) 15% market gains in 8 weeks is too good to be true, market about to reverse shortly (day-2 weeks)
4) Bull market, bear market, climbing unemployment, whatever, the market doesn't represent economic valuations and will go where it wants.

I really dont want to see #2 happen, anything but that. The damage to the US will be too great.

If you think the market has seen the worst, PLEASE invest with stops. Also consider waiting to buy gold/silver miners when Gary of Smart Money tracker next pulls the trigger, at a minimum the resource play is there to augment your stock position.

For me, I am dazed and confused, pretty much a deer in headlights, waiting for the sweet bliss of the bus hitting me. All kidding aside, just watching and waiting.

Here are charts for where we stand today. What I find most interesting is 30 year interest rates are at the level BEFORE the market started to fall. So if the market does mark upwards rising rates will at some point choke the advance.

From WebSufinMurfs FinancialBlog2

From WebSufinMurfs FinancialBlog2

From WebSufinMurfs FinancialBlog2

From WebSufinMurfs FinancialBlog2

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