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Wednesday, December 9, 2009

Job situation being mis-represented

There are two great posts by Mish on the US Job situation. There are two major distortions of reality being perpetuated on the Public.

First there is the unemployment report distortions as discussed in post "Are you unemployed"?. What is considered to be unemployed is frankly, not "honest" assessment of the job situation. Further, when Jobless rates are quoted compared to the past, the past methodology was more honest than today. So 10% in 2009 is not the same 10% in 1992.

When you account for people who's benefits run out, took part time work but want full time employment, etc, its closer to 17%.

Second, the future projections on job creation is an outright ridiculous fantasy being presented by the US government. Some stats
  • At height of internet bubble, monthly new jobs rose to 264k.
  • At height of the 2005 real estate bubble, new jobs rose to 212k per month
  • The Feds forecast calls for 260k new jobs per month for the next 3 years to achieve 6% unemployment by end of 2012.
260k new jobs per month? I may be pessimistic at times, but come on, who believes this stuff? The public does, since the news headlines read "fed predicts 6% unemployment by 2012". The press doesn't dig beyond the headline, so the only place you can find sanity is on the internet. (and plenty of insanity, hence this blog).

To read more on the simple facts, and a more realistic forecast, see Mish's article titled "Fed's Unemployment Projections From Mars".

I added a new tag for posts that cover "RealityDistortions" to help document the ridiculous lies being fed to the public.

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