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Tuesday, October 20, 2009

John Chinnock Quote

In reviewing some older material, I ran across this post from July by my friend John Chinnock.

An interesting quote from John below.
Short-term forecasting is not my specialty, but I will make some amateur attempts. We broke out of a huge consolidation on Thursday. Despite the market being very overbought, I see it as very crucial for the market to quickly give back this breakout early next week. As the risk of looking foolish over the short-term (which short-term forecasters usually wind up doing), I see next week as crucial for the near-term bearish case. If we continue to consolidate above the breakout zone (approximately Dow 8900 and SPX 855), we could easily have another large leg higher. I personally will be forced to at least lighten, as once the bulls begin to stampede, logic quickly transforms into euphoria, and rallies can last much longer than expected (do the bulls ever even use logic?). My fear isn't that the market won't eventually fail, it's that we'll go above Dow 10K+ before it does. At some point, as traders, we realize that it is better to make and/or save money than be right.

Interesting forecasting, John's fears came true. The question is, when, not if, will the market correct?

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