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Tuesday, August 18, 2009

Shorts back on

Short are back on....actually, I never left my shorts, but came seriously close on Friday. Well, the stock DIN was hit out through my stop-loss level, but I will be looking to put it back on on a market rally. And as for John Chinnock, the friend I mentioned last Thursday/Friday, as a professional trader he is, he ADDED at the close Friday. In this market to win as a bear trader, you must take risks to win, and he did.

This market is teetering on a very nasty fall, well, at this point I am the little boy that says "the sky is falling". :) But to be fair, the initial end of my "Bull" mode from 666 was at SPX 930, we are now at 979, and the high was 1018. If the 1018 high stays, and the market heads lower as anticipated, then the switch to bull to bear was off by about 9.5%. Considering the market is anticipated to hit SPX 800, and potentially 666 or lower, the % off in the up isn't bad.

In any event, enough pontificating, lets get to the nuts and bolts on where things stand.
First, my positions where never off, but this past Friday as blogged, I was on the brink of getting out. Talk about timing! That is called CAPITULATION. I did, in fact, cover some of my shorts "at the very top". See what a great trader I am?

Well, as you probably saw and felt like I did, the shorting was getting brutal. And unfortunately, 2 days hardly marks a trend change. This market could be about to blow above SPX 1018 this week.

So I will be trying to not add to shorts too quickly, for many reasons. First, this week is options expiration this Saturday. And that ALWAYS brings games. The games could be every day the market tanks right into Saturday. Or there is some rally/tank action between now and Saturday.

The game plan is for me to add SLOWLY back some of the sort, but in general sit on my hands and add to the positions if we rally into Friday. The key line for me to watch is does the market stay below the long term trend bear line as depicted?

As for precious metals/gold miners, LOOK OUT, I have said don't go long and I maintain that position. I have most of my positions countered by selling calls.

For people in long, for years, today and every day since SPX hit 930+ has been and will be a great day to sell your positions. +50% from the low in 5 months or less is EXCELLENT. Chart below:
From WebSurfinMurf's Financial Blog

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