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Thursday, July 16, 2009

Third hand, dealer gets four kings, a player goes bankrupt

MAJOR CORRECTION: CIT GROUP not CITIBANK
(Note to self, don't do blog post at 12:30 am)

The market rallied above the upper right hand shoulder of the head and shoulder pattern. The upside is now potentially to new highs for the year in SPX. The question is, will it?

Well there are rumblings of some pretty bad news.

CIT group (NOT citibank, thanks McGrath) news is out that CIT Group may go bankrupt.

Russia's economy contracts 10% in the first half of the year. So who cares, the US is doing great right? Well one of the theories a year ago is America would have problems, but the world trade would help. Apparently as I said before, only silver lining is the US is "just as screwed up" as everyone else.

Container traffic through the port of Long beach June represented a 28.7% decline compared to June of 2008. This is a clear indicator that the economy is contracting, not expanding.

Michigan unemployment rate jumps again to 15.2 percent in June. That is a Great Depression type print.

Bank of America Credit-Card Charge-Offs Reach 13.86%. My spin is this is just the beginning, not the end, with 600K per month layoffs happening.

The number of homeowners delinquent on mortgages owned or backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac climbed 6.5 percent in April.

So whats my final spin? The market is acting irrational, this is a ramp up to the next major fall. That could come Thurday, Friday, or Monday . I am hanging in there by a thread as I watch my entire screen bleed, but I will hang on.

Interest rates are rising fast, and Gold miners are hitting the upper limit. Selling gold miners here is not a bad idea, buy it back if it closes above 39. I am holding my gold miners.

With interest rates rising, the government will be forced to have the stock markets fall again. Question is when, and if my bank account can take the pain being dished out.

NOTE* My best guess is market starts to fall Thursday, with huge fall Friday into options expiration.

From WebSurfinMurf's Financial Blog

From WebSurfinMurf's Financial Blog

From WebSurfinMurf's Financial Blog

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