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Wednesday, June 24, 2009

Time to buy Gold Miners?

When GDX was at 44, I stated in the blog wait for a pullback to the bull trend line at about 37 and buy. Well yesterday GDX went slightly below the bull trend line, and today it closed above it.
I am trying different software for charting, so bear with me. The chart below shows horizontal "Fibonacci" retracement lines, basically mathematical statistical probabilities for stock price movement. Notice GDX barely poked below the trend line yesterday and quickly recovered.

If you want to buy any gold miner, now isn't a bad time. However, I have one thing that makes me NOT go all in here. I believe the market is heading lower, down to SPX 810. Therefore I have a hard time imagining how the gold miners don't break the bull trend line and get some sort of sell off. From a chart perspective its a great place to buy in. If GDX breaks the bull trend line down, the next great spot to buy GDX is 27.

If you are skittish, buy a little, say, 1/5th of the position you want right here and now, and buy more at 33, 30, 27, 24. I really doubt you will see GDX below 30, but who knows. In any event, looking at the chart for GDX, and how infrequently it spends time on the bull trend line, it is a lower risk entry point. It is times like this ACTION is needed, don't just watch the screen.

Remember, I believe (right or wrong) gold miners will return 1,000 to 10,000% return over the course of the next few years. All prices are good prices from that timeline perspective.

From WebSurfinMurf's Financial Blog
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