Couple of points from my perspective
- Today's counter rally was driven by a mix of government news/media games, European monetary action, politics (Ben Bernanke testimony) but NOT by fundamentals. Downtrend could resume shortly
- We are in a bear market, hence the over-all trend is down
- The market could reverse, hit 960-1,000 SPX before reversing again.
If this is a reversal back to SPX 960-1000, and that reversal hits it's peak somewhere around July 15th, the fall will be disastrous and with depth. A failure of this counter rally on top of a 39% rally in 7 weeks would be with extreme force.
For my bank account, for my own sanity, and for the health of this country I hope the market will resume the bear trend down to SPX 810 area, then bounce.
In all events I am prepared to do what it takes to trade somewhat out of my positions to protect my bank account, so I can double up in the event we hit new highs in mid July. For now I will take it day by day. I have said before, nothing moves in a straight line and 2009 will be a horrible year to trade stocks.
Also in the news, there has been 14 weeks of significant INSIDER selling of stocks. Translation: CNBC says it is a great time to buy stocks, but the executive members of the US corporations are selling as quick as they can.
I am betting the insiders know more than the public spin machine.
Gold miners are doing great, as GDX and miners rally. I added to my positions on Tuesday, but I am holding off on loading the boat until this market decides direction with conviction.