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Friday, March 13, 2009

MONSTER Bear Market Rally

This bear market is pissed off, and is biting back hard!
I was "waiting" for a monster rally for weeks, I "finally" threw in the towel Feb 27th. My friend happy John never lost the faith.
So how high are we going? S&P500 a good guess is 800-825 range as a reasonable target. However the market could bite back much harder and keep going.

Expect a pullback, possibly tomorrow. But the Bear is loose, and gutting the short sellers. The short sellers will now panic and cover adding fuel to the fire. Of course, government news can kill the entire run if they do something stupid. Right now the government is talking about suspending mark to market accounting.

Has the fundamentals changed? Hello no! Is the world facing another great depression, heck yea! Is there an army of bad news, of course. Is spending TRILLIONS of dollars by giving it to reckless corporations going to have consequences, yes! But for now its time to follow the whipsaw of the market and ignore the financial fundamentals. Lets look at the S&P500 below. Target is S&P about 800-840 range. My 1st grade charting guide shows an extreme high is 900-950 range. Update: See "The Smart Money Tracker" for Gary's spin.

From WebSurfinMurf's Financial Blog
Right now the 752 may be upper resistance, hence why we may pullback tomorrow.

For those readers in the market for the next 10 years+, take notice, I don't think this is the bottom, just a "short term" bottom. Take a look at the chart below to put where the market is in perspective to the last 20 years. If you truly believe (I respectfully disagree) that this is 'the" bottom, load up on stocks, get in cheap. But I don't see the economy turning around for years, and therefore the market is destined to break the recent lows. This rally could last months and go even higher than I posted, just long enough to start convincing people the water is safe...it is not.

So hang on to some longs. I'll post on the "lottery ticket" performance, 7 days later.
From WebSurfinMurf's Financial Blog

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