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Financial news I consider important, with my opinion, which is worth as much as you paid for it.
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Tuesday, February 24, 2009

Obama Address to Congress

I just finished watching President Obama lay out his agenda for the years to come, to address not only the short term needs, but also long term for America. It was the best Presidential speech I have seen as an adult. Only Reagan may have been a president who could inspire confidence like Obama. Clinton was excellent, however Reagan and Obama both walked into office with a nation under financial turmoil.

I'm almost sold that Obama will pull improve America's prospects for a 10 year recession, and put America on a better path. Only time will tell if the talk will be followed up with the required action.

With that said, for trading, none of this matters. What matters is the reaction of the markets tomorrow and the months to come. My disposition is FINALLY we will get an Obama rally as the world has now heard Obama willing to take the reigns of this run-away train.

But, we will have to see how the next few days end in the market. The Market Ticker blog has stated the futures have decided Obama has failed to provide enough details to turn around the market selling, see his blog here.

Today I dumped more gold miners, and bought more "higher risk" long positions. Many I dumped only last week, mostly at higher prices. I did double up on FAS, a pretty stupid high risk play in an attempt to regain some losses in that play. Bought more UWM, UNG, USL, QLD, OIH. Shorted DXD and Dominio's pizza. Still more than 1/3 cash.

So we will see how the markets react. Gold miners (GDX) I am *hoping* pull back to 30 to 27 dollar range. If so, I'll reload for the long haul. Since no matter what Obama says or plans, one thing is for certain. The currencies of the world is about to "double up" on debt, and put governments, including the US into higher risk. That should eventually result in higher gold prices, and higher profits for gold miners. And I'm guessing any rally that does start (if it starts) will last month(s), before our final depth plunge into new lows.

I will update and add video here when available.

Political commentary Please skip if not interested in my two cents.
We will hear from Republicans how irresponsible it is to deficit spend. In the last 6 years of "economic growth" the government under Republican leadership spent more than a generation. So although, in principle, I 100% agree with the criticism, I am a little put off by the double standard for a Republican administration under prosperity vs America under financial woes. (caused by numerous corrupt acts in the last 8 years). But I admit, the deficit spending will yield a negative backlash, and I'm still looking at Gold Miners for that safe haven.

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