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Wednesday, February 11, 2009

Market Volatility

Market fell hard Tuesday. Government announced "TARP II", the Obama rescue package. Apparently none of this is impressing everyone.

Unfortunately, the market is near "doom scenarios" once again. Safest play is and has been CASH. Gold, Oil, Stocks, Bond, everything is moving around violently. Wednesdays open may be positive, but the real test if the market turns down is if it can hold DOW 7,500 range. If at any time, the market closes convincingly below 7,500 (say 7,300), its time for gates of hell to open. Talking some serious market collapse, making the Fall of 08 looking like a warm up.

The way this market has been playing, I could see the market closing at 7,300. Everyone starts to dump and THAT is the real bottom, setting up for a multi-month rally. But I really doubt it.

Once the stock charters see support is broken, it will likely trigger a cascade sell off that won't be stopped easily.

For a refresher, posted the long term view once again.

I just cant buy anything here. Matter of fact, this may be a stupid play, but I sold some of my GDX, and on any gain tomorrow I may sell more longs "thanking god" for the bounce. It's brutal. And I doubt I'll buy any oil for a while, even if it manages to start rallying. I'll consider adding to OIL using ETF USL if/when Oil cracks below 30 bucks a barrel.

I have been on the brink of disaster so many times with this market, it almost seems not possible to be here again. I no clue where this is going.

As for news, frankly, the Obama administration is showing they are "green". They did not deliver the hard punch that Paulson would do selling their snake oil. I understand that the Obama plan will not save the USA, I just continue to hope they sell it so others believed it will........

From WebSurfinMurf's Financial Blog

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