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Financial news I consider important, with my opinion, which is worth as much as you paid for it.
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Friday, November 7, 2008

Rebound Friday?

Two big down days back to back, over 450 points each day. The Smart Money Tracker, Slope of Hope, and "Happy John" (good friend with decade of stock trading experience) all predict this down leg is losing steam and be prepared to go back into rally mode. I for one believe we will see DOW 9800 before we see DOW 7800. )Dow 8695 currently. I have full faith the government will make some sort of announcement/stick save to push the market up. Could be around GM/Chrysler.
I am now significantly (80%+) long GDX, plenty of gold miners, UNG, DIG, GLD, and a sprinkling of odd balls such as VMW, EMC, and OIH.
Friday will have a market-moving number announced with the employment situation being announced at 8:30 am Eastern.

For daily dose of Cheery news:
Continuing job claims hits 25 year high. My Spin: Wow, in 1983 the job claim situation matches the US today, and according to the US government the US isn't even in a RECESSION!
Toyota slashes annual forecast by 68% for net profits My Spin: Unprecedented
Ford lost 3 Billion last fiscal quarter, used 7.7 Billion of it's cash, and has 19 Billion cash left. My Spin: At the rate of cash being burned, this could turn ugly quickly without yet another bailout by the government. See preserving wealth.
Marc Farber sees Bankruptcy for US My Spin: I'm not prepared to state I believe it, but I wouldn't rule it out either. In any case, still bolsters my post "Thesis Change" and "Preserving Wealth"
Federal Reserve's Balance sheet is over 2 Trillion My Spin: the paper valuation is 2T, the actual valuation must be significantly less, since the fed will take debt notes no one else will as collateral. Lets hope these institutions pay uncle sam back before going belly up. If they don't this Fed balance sheet will be transferred to the taxpayer debt obligations.

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