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Financial news I consider important, with my opinion, which is worth as much as you paid for it.
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Wednesday, November 12, 2008

Buzz of Another Great Depression

Today the bloggers and various news organizations are calling for another "Great Depression".
I for one, do believe this will occur, but the timing of when this happens in the market is the question.

Why do I think we will see a "Great Depression"? The world has seen a 6 year bull run based upon.....bullsh*t. Basically the bull run was financed by artificially low interest rates, no bank oversight by the Bush administration, and ridiculously high levels of leverage allowed. Now as money collapses (deflation) there will be massive causalities in the corporate world.

Merrill CEO compares 1929 to current events
Credit Markets are absurdly priced or "predict" multi-year depression
Blogger Financial Ninja declares US bankrupt (nice & scary charts from Fed government)

As the Stock market declines towards DOW 8,175, the market comes closer to possibly an all out collapse. Dow 6,000 would be very possible. Although I think this will occur, I am leaning towards a year or two long melt starting next year to that level.

Other News:
USA may lose AAA rating - This may really hurry the parties end.
Insurance company Prudential lowers annual dividend by 50%
Bail outrage as lack of transparency called a national disgrace. My spin: How DARE people question the Bush administration's method of operations, you are either for US or against us, you unpatriotic terrorist! Now go back to work (or your unemployment checks) and pay your taxes to fund the "final" blowout party!
Bonuses for Wall Street Should Go to Zero, U.S. Taxpayers Say My Spin: Funny little taxpayers, your interests where completely tossed out in 2004 once your job of electing this administration for a second term was done. Your cute when your angry.
Massive Deflation not inflation occurring (Blogger Mish)
Citi, Freddie, Fannie to cut mortgage payments My spin: If your house has more owed than it's worth, why are you paying your mortgage? Join the party and call your bank, ask for your discount coupon. And if you bought a house and paid it off, your get nothing (except higher taxes next year) for being responsible, let that be a lesson to you!
UPDATE
American Express to get "TARP" money. My spin: Bennigans & Steak and Ale corporate owner should have changed into a bank holding company to get the cash it needed to stay in business, and save 8,000 jobs!

Final Comment
At this point, if the US collapses, it will likely be from the world outside the US collapsing, bringing the USA down hard. The US citizens and companies already have been beaten down, another leg will need our neighbors to kick the legs out from under us. Let's hope the US can get another 2-3 months before that happens. I'd like to have another Christmas with a job.

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